The U.S. News & World Report's Rankings for Best Football Schools*
*Not actually affiliated with U.S. News & World Report Scroll to the bottom to skip the technical details The draft always raises a simple question to me and my friends, if I'm a talented player does the college I pick really matter? There are plenty of arguments about which schools are the best football schools in the nation if they are really blue blood programs. However, most of this is founded on national championship and team success, with a fair bit of media bias thrown in as well. Most high school football players don't make the NFL, so what does a quantative analysis about a high school player's choice in college say about their chance to go pro? To answer this question, we first pulled all historic data of NFL players using Pro Football Reference, as well as the top 1000 high school prospects from 2002-2015 using 247 Sports. To find if a high school prospect made the NFL, we check for a match in the NFL list of players with the same name (that started in the NFL between 3-6 years after their high school graduation year). This is probably not a purely perfect system, but some amount of fact checking has shown it to be good enough. From there, we create a simple "model" to figure out each prospects baseline chances of making the NFL. This adjustment is necessary because higher ranked prospects are obviously more likely to make it to the NFL regardless of what school they go to, and are also more likely to be selected by blue blood programs with a strong record. To "model" this baseline likelihood for each rank, we take the average rate a player makes the NFL for a window around each rank. Why do windowing? Because we only have data for 14 players (one for each year) per rank, and that sample is too small to get an accurate estimate. However, we believe that the surrounding ranks represent players of similar skill and can be used in the estimate of the likelihood of making the NFL. In short, in most years, the difference between the number 1 ranked WR and the number 2 ranked WR is probably not drastic, so they can be binned together. Our predictions can be found in this graph as the dotted blue line. For number one high school prospects, the baseline chance of making the NFL is over 80%. This drops steadily until around rank 100 and seems to taper off to about a 10% chance of making the NFL. Importantly, it seems that our model isn't biased at any particular rank by overpredicting or underpredicting the likelihood of making the NFL the way a linear model might. Now, for the final trick, we find the difference between each prospect making the NFL or not and their projected probability using our model above. This becomes the "Additional Benefit" that a school provides, maybe through its strong coaching, good connections, talent development, or payoffs to refs. Whatever it is, its a quantitative measurement of how much the school added or subtracted to a player's baseline chance of making the NFL coming out of high school. We can then sort these schools by the average additional benefit they give to their players, filtering out schools that did not send a statistically significant amount of players to the NFL (i.e. 30 players to the NFL since 2000).
School
CountRecruits
AdditionalBenefit
ActualNflProb
Ohio State
224
0.0972353
0.379464
Penn State
210
0.0685255
0.27619
Wisconsin
177
0.0671343
0.231638
Clemson
227
0.065341
0.277533
Stanford
196
0.0622576
0.255102
Miami
248
0.0612245
0.310484
Florida
276
0.05377
0.347826
USC
252
0.0505501
0.384921
LSU
305
0.048175
0.301639
Iowa
139
0.0461087
0.223022
Purdue
117
0.0454173
0.196581
Alabama
286
0.0447078
0.314685
Notre Dame
264
0.0432898
0.291667
Illinois
144
0.0421896
0.208333
Maryland
174
0.0406062
0.218391
Georgia
290
0.033312
0.289655
Michigan
268
0.0314975
0.264925
UCLA
234
0.0294421
0.24359
Oregon
203
0.0286179
0.231527
Boise State
70
0.0275763
0.157143
San Diego State
61
0.0274509
0.163934
Washington
203
0.0271218
0.206897
Nebraska
216
0.026173
0.203704
Louisville
141
0.0255309
0.184397
Connecticut
37
0.024976
0.162162
California
182
0.0244089
0.214286
Oklahoma
264
0.0236414
0.268939
Rutgers
138
0.0207261
0.188406
Northwestern
124
0.0175792
0.153226
Toledo
35
0.0152627
0.142857
Virginia
187
0.0123767
0.197861
Indiana
91
0.0102069
0.142857
Florida State
270
0.00908865
0.292593
Michigan State
190
0.00747498
0.178947
Fresno State
45
0.00310076
0.133333
Auburn
271
2.48289e-05
0.217712
Tennessee
262
-0.00261421
0.229008
South Carolina
238
-0.00626309
0.189076
Virginia Tech
210
-0.00660753
0.171429
Arkansas
226
-0.00674162
0.163717
Missouri
196
-0.00865593
0.158163
Vanderbilt
120
-0.00946914
0.133333
Arizona State
193
-0.0122685
0.150259
Pittsburgh
188
-0.0130439
0.154255
TCU
160
-0.0143112
0.13125
Boston College
153
-0.0144981
0.143791
Utah
105
-0.0154327
0.12381
Georgia Tech
169
-0.017119
0.136095
Texas
282
-0.0188609
0.258865
Wake Forest
90
-0.0203428
0.111111
Oregon State
125
-0.0209483
0.128
SMU
63
-0.021339
0.111111
USF
101
-0.0227299
0.128713
North Carolina
226
-0.024601
0.154867
Texas Tech
173
-0.0277343
0.132948
Louisiana Tech
42
-0.0282686
0.0952381
Brigham Young
95
-0.0312065
0.126316
Texas A&M
263
-0.0324083
0.178707
NC State
141
-0.0339116
0.141844
Oklahoma State
216
-0.0348851
0.12963
Duke
110
-0.0352329
0.1
Kansas
131
-0.0377946
0.0992366
Ole Miss
212
-0.0456101
0.141509
Memphis
31
-0.0468624
0.0967742
Arizona
160
-0.0468774
0.1125
UCF
70
-0.0470138
0.0857143
West Virginia
164
-0.0473924
0.109756
Colorado State
50
-0.0588619
0.06
Houston
70
-0.0594461
0.0714286
Kansas State
114
-0.0608208
0.0877193
Baylor
137
-0.0617023
0.0948905
Minnesota
125
-0.0622246
0.08
Syracuse
82
-0.0624295
0.0731707
Cincinnati
64
-0.0660395
0.0625
Mississippi State
193
-0.0663839
0.108808
Tulsa
41
-0.0664076
0.0731707
East Carolina
33
-0.0709117
0.0606061
Colorado
171
-0.0768549
0.0818713
Tulane
44
-0.077419
0.0454545
Kentucky
107
-0.0825436
0.0747664
Washington State
107
-0.0857713
0.0560748
Marshall
48
-0.08875
0.0416667
Iowa State
95
-0.0955231
0.0421053
Hawaii
36
-0.109805
0.0277778
Southern Miss
62
-0.115323
0.0322581
And we can officially use this data to confirm that Texas is not back. Meanwhile, attending Ohio State provides a whopping 10% percentage point increase (i.e. +10%) in a prospect's chance to make the NFL. Edit: Thanks for all the feedback and discussion! Really made me and u/cweethrowaway758 happy. There were some requests for data so here are our two datasets in TSV format. NFL players: https://i.fluffy.cc/VdXJT2rxSFQQfQS5QHhc3f6GC3csT264.tsv Schema: Name, Position(s), Start Year, End Year HS recruits: https://i.fluffy.cc/rdX2nzmVhxf11hFLblbppXcZWL6qVWPF.tsv Schema: Name, Position(s), Overall Recruit Ranking, 247Sports Composite Score
Who's ready for another week of football? Last week was all over the place, but overall was a little bit down in quality from week 2. This week should be back to form, with the SEC kicking off and quite a few ranked vs ranked matchups. What games are the best to watch? Read on to find out. Also, I am only ranking the top 20 games from here on out just to keep me sane. So sorry to all for you Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe fans, among others, as you missed the list. Anyway, here we go. 20) Middle Tennessee vs UTSA (-6.5) - 8:00 Fri., CBS Sports Network: This game wasn't supposed to be in my post. I had USF vs FAU at #14, but Covid happened, so it got postponed. Now we get to see a Friday night showdown in the Alamodome. Middle Tennessee has looked pathetic so far, and this is their last chance to say they have any shot of going over 500. UTSA earned a 2 score win over SFA on Saturday, but they didn't look great. They should be back to their normal form Friday, as they'll get a narrow win. 19) Mississippi State vs LSU (-16.5) - 3:30, CBS: First off, I want to point out that this game also didn't make my original list. I had Tulsa vs Arkansas State at #7, but that got postponed, bumping this game in. Anyway, the Mike Leach era has begun in Starkville. It'll probably take a couple games to get the Air Raid going strong, but it will be fun to watch. LSU lost a ton of talent, but Coach O never backs down from a fight. LSU should be able to jump ahead early, and take this one home pretty comfortably. 18) Georgia State (-2.5) vs Charlotte - Noon, ESPNU: These teams actually have a lot more in common than one would think. Both are relatively new to the FBS, were able to go bowling last season, and look like they will be taking a step back this year. Georgia State looked really good against the Cajuns last week, but fell apart late and lost in OT. Meanwhile, this is a huge game for Charlotte. It's their home opener, and they need a win to prove the can have a shot at a winning record. With both these team's conferences looking very deep this year, a boost of momentum from a win here could be the difference in a winning or losing record. 17) Florida International vs Liberty (-7) - 1:00, ESPN3: These teams may not be known all that well, but this should be a fun shootout. FIU was a pretty good team last year, although it did end with a loss to Arkansas State in a very thrilling Camellia Bowl. They did lose their QB to the NFL though, along with some other talent. Liberty actually kicked off their season last week, earning a 7 point win over Western Kentucky. Those game reps could be the difference here, as that will give them an edge in this close game. 16) Florida State vs Miami (-11) - 7:30, ABC: Hurricanes fans, you should not be proud of that victory last week. That was one of the ugliest games I have ever seen, and unfortunately I think we are in store for another game like that here. The U has been pretty good offensively this year, and that will continue here. FSU has been a different story. They lost to Georgia Tech 2 weeks ago even after the Yellow Jackets missed 4 kicks. Now they are without their Head Coach after he tested positive for Covid. This will be ugly for both team, and an easy win for the U. Gameday should NOT be here at all. 15) North Carolina State vs Virginia Tech (-7) - 8:00, ACC Network: What a game NC State played last week. It was a very exciting game, with the Wolfpack winning 45-42, but it wasn't great defensively. I don't have ACC Network, so I couldn't watch the game, but it had to be ugly if you give up that many. VT is kicking off their season this week and should be about the same level as last year. While the season ended on a sour note losing to Kentucky and Virginia in their final 2 games, they still have a very underrated coach in Fuente. This should be a fun, back-and-forth game. 14) Georgia Southern vs Louisiana (-11.5) - Noon, ESPN2: This is one of those games that I think will be good, but I have no clue why I feel that way. The Cajuns had a pretty thrilling game against Georgia State last week, getting the win in overtime. They may be 2-0, but last week proves they still have work to do. Georgia Southern's triple-option offense will be a good test for this defense. They looked ugly against Campbell, but a ton of players were out. They are back now, and will give the Cajuns a run for their money. 13) Texas (-18) vs Texas Tech - 3:30, Fox: I want to have faith in Texas Tech, but they aren't making me very hopeful so far. They allowed Houston Baptist's QB to throw for 567 yards and 4 TDs. 567! They somehow were still able to get a 35-33 win, but this will be the test of a lifetime for the Red Raider defense. Sam Ehlinger looked great against UTEP in week 1, and the whole team looked amazing in their 59-3 win. This will be another step up, and with a tough challenge from TCU coming next week, this may be a trap. One thing is for sure: there will be tons of points. 12) Georgia Tech (-8) vs Syracuse - Noon, ESPN3: Syracuse's offense has looked pretty terrible to start the season. The Orange have scored 16 points in 2 games, and have averaged a pitiful 187 yards a game. They could be getting desperate for a momentum boost, and here is a good chance for one. GT was holding their own with UCF last week, but couldn't hang around late as they were outscored 21-0 in the 4th. Now they have a long road trip ahead, and could be looking towards the bye week after this. I still have GT winning, but Cuse will hang around. 11) Tulane (-3.5) vs Southern Mississippi - 2:30, Stadium - It's time for a bowl rematch! These teams faced off in last year's Armed Forces Bowl, with Southern Miss going up 13-0 in the first and not scoring the rest of the game, as Tulane won 30-13. This year's affair should be a good bit closer, especially since these teams will be pretty familiar with one another. The Green Wave seem to have a tendency to play in close games this year, with both of their games so far being 27-24. Another 3 point game is fine with me. 10) Florida (-14) vs Mississippi - Noon, ESPN: The Lane Train has rolled into the SEC, as Lane Kiffin is the new Head Coach at Ole Miss. The level of competition here is much tougher than what he had in Conference USA, and that is clear with the first matchup. Florida is coming off and Orange Bowl win, and looks to upend Georgia in the SEC East. Their path to that starts here, in what could be a tricky game to start. Lane Kiffin's play style will be a new test for all SEC teams, and will keep the Rebels in the game for awhile. 9) UAB (-6.5) vs South Alabama - 7:30 Thurs., ESPN: This should be a nice interstate showdown under the lights. Both teams are 1-1, with UAB looking a lot like USF so far, beating a FCS team and losing big time to an ACC team. Unlike USF, the Blazers look to be a contender in Conference USA. South Alabama should be a nice challenge for them. The Jaguars are also 1-1, but have had some closer games. They are about the same level as most upper-tier Conference USA teams, so UAB needs show they can handle their competition. I'd easily recommend watching this over the NFL game tonight. 8) Duke vs Virginia (-5) - 4:00, ACC Network: Duke was VERY underwhelming against BC last Saturday. They had a great performance against Notre Dame week 1, but just couldn't even contend with the Eagles on Saturday. Their offense will need to bring some power, as UVA sure knows how to put up some points. Sure, they lost their QB, but the offense should still have some firepower. Their defense will need to improve from last year to have any shot of making the ACC Championship game again, but for this week, expect a shootout in Charlottesville. 7) Troy vs BYU (-14) - 10:15, ESPN: Who needs Pac-12 After Dark this year when you have Saturday Nights in Provo? Both of these teams absolutely demolished their competition in their first game, but it will be a challenge to keep that up. Troy was very good against MTSU, absolutely crushing the Blue Raiders in nearly every aspect. BYU was lucky that Navy had 0 contact practices before their season, as the Midshipmen were not prepared at all for the game. BYU won 55-3. I love the Cougars this year, but this will be closer than predicted. I see a one-score game, maybe even OT. 6) Tennessee (-3.5) vs South Carolina - 7:30, SEC Network: The first SEC Saturday Night of the year gives us what should be a very good defensive showdown. Tennessee returns quite a few players from a team that finished strong last year, winning their final 6, including the Gator Bowl on their way to an 8-5 record. The Gamecocks, however, weren't able to go bowling, as they really struggled down the stretch. There will be plenty of unknowns in this first game for both teams, but be ready to take the under, and to watch a good old fashioned dogfight. 5) Iowa State (-2.5) vs TCU - 1:30, Fox Sports 1: These are likely the 2 best defenses in the Big 12 this year, and they should make for a great matchup. TCU was supposed to kick off against SMU on the 11th, but that game had to be cancelled. The Horned Frogs lost 6 of their final 8 last year, but with a bunch of guys returning from injury, they can make some things happen this year. Iowa State struggled against the Cajuns, especially on special teams, allowing 2 return TDs in a 31-14 loss. Both defenses will be good here, and this will be a game there 1 mistake could decide it. 4) Louisville vs Pittsburgh (-3) - Noon, ACC Network: Is Pitt a real contender in the ACC? They have looked very strong so far this year, demolishing Austin Peay and looking very good against Syracuse. This, however, will be their first real challenge of the year. Louisville looked very sloppy hosting Miami last week, but there is a chance that could just have been the big game jitters getting to them. They should be able to settle in for this one, which will be a good test to see where they truly stack up in the conference. The winner of this one will gain a lot more respect in the ACC, and this will be a fight to the end. 3) Kentucky vs Auburn (-7.5) - Noon, SEC Network: Another ranked vs ranked matchup, this SEC clash should have plenty of defense to go around. Kentucky is looking to build off of a great 2019, and they get back former starting QB Terry Wilson after losing Lynn Bowden Jr. to the NFL. They'll be ready to ground and pound it behind their solid offensive line, but Auburn will make that tricky. The Tigers return some good players on defense, and as long as Bo Nix is healthy, the Tigers are in good hands. Kentucky won their last game in Auburn in 2009, will there be another upset here? Don't count it out. 2) West Virginia vs Oklahoma State (-7) - 3:30, ABC: That sure was an odd game for Oklahoma State last week. The Pokes lost QB Spencer Sanders to an ankle sprain in the 1st quarter, and got stuck in a defensive slog of a game against Tulsa. Chuba Hubbard couldn't get anything going either, only getting 93 yards on 27 carries. They were able to get a 16-7 win, but it was ugly. WVU blew out Eastern Kentucky in their lone game, but you can't take much from that. The health of Sanders will be a key factor here, and could decide who wins. Whether he plays or not, expect a fun, back-and-forth nailbiter. 1) Army vs Cincinnati (-13.5) - 3:30, ESPN: This week's top game is a good old-fashioned ground and pound showdown. Army has looked fantastic so far, and while they have only played 2 below-average teams, their defense has been incredible. Their triple-option will be a big challenge for Cincy, as they don't face another offense like that at all this year. The Bearcats also looked really good against Austin Peay, but again, you can't take much from that. This will be a fast game where the clock will be running a lot, and the defenses will decide who gets a close win.
Much like last year we will be creating multiple threads throughout the process. Each day of the draft will have 2 dedicated posts - one open discussion thread where selection spoilers are allowed and a broadcast thread where spoilers are not allowed. Violating the spoiler restrictions in the broadcast thread will result in a temporary ban for the duration of the draft. A live thread will accompany all of these threads and remain actively updated throughout the entire draft. Each selection will also have an individual thread posted by nfl_mod. Please do not attempt to post these yourself - submissions will be locked. After the draft days end, submissions will be re-opened. Should important news arise during the draft, this can still be submitted, but will have to await moderator approval. Message the moderators if something you submitted isn't showing. As each day finishes, the threads for the day will be locked, as new ones go up. The individual selection threads will not be locked at any point. This thread is just a hub to direct discussion to the appropriate threads, and so will remain locked for the duration of the draft.
New for 2020: College Stats by Sports Reference
This year we've teamed up with Sports Reference who have graciously supplied us with College Stats for our draft cards. Check out their subreddit and of course their website which is a great and flexible source of stats for the NFL, college football - and more. Huge thanks for helping us out. Especially since pro days were cancelled and player measurables were hard to come by!
Using the Panthers 2019 Draft Behavior to Predict 2020 Results: A Novel by Emurrell17
Last year I made a post using Walter Football’s draft visit tracker to try to predict what direction we might go early in the draft. I am going to try to do the same this year, but I’m MUCH more depth. I want to make clear up front that, I am going into this post blind. I am not going into this with the mindset of, “how can I convince myself we will take Simmons” or anything like that. Based on last years results, I believe the data will show us a pattern and I’m interested to see what that is. I’m going to be looking at this years data for the first time as I write the post, just like you as you read it. Let’s see where the hell this goes. ————————— Let’s start by taking a look at last years visits to see how helpful they turned out to be in determining our selections. Before I do that, here’s a key so you know what the hell you’re looking at: SR - Senior Bowl meeting. EW - East-West Shrine meeting. COM - Combine meeting. INT - Interested. VINT - Very Interested. PRO - Pro Day or campus meeting/workout. LOC - Local visit. Prospect making a local visit. PRI - Private visit. Prospect making an official 30 visit. WOR - Private Workout. Members of an organization working out a player in private. STM - Some Type of Meeting. VIR - Virtual Meeting. % - indicates more than one meeting at an event. ^ - has met with team at more than one event. (#)- indicates meeting set up outside of the 2019 Senior Bowl or the 2019 East-West Shrine Game Note: In looking at the keys for the 2019 compared to 2020 classes, I noticed that VIR (virtual) are obviously something specific to this year. That’s an abbreviation you’ll see in the 2020 list and not the 2019 list. Just wanted to get ahead of that confusion. Okay, so without further ado, here are the lists: 2019 draft visits: Ben Banogu, DE/3-4OLB/OLB, TCU (COM) Jordan Brailford, DE, Oklahoma State (EW) Nick Brossette, RB, LSU (EW) Blace Brown, CB, Troy (EW) Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma (PRI) Brian Burns, DE/3-4OLB/OLB, Florida State (PRI) Juwann Bushell-Beatty, G, Michigan (EW) Yodny Cajuste, OT, West Virginia (PRI) C.J. Conrad, TE, Kentucky (EW) Maxx Crosby, DE, Eastern Michigan (PRI) Nate Davis, OT, Charlotte (LOC, COM) Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State (PRI) Nick Easley, WR, Iowa (PRO) Bobby Evans, OT, Oklahoma (PRO, PRI, WOR) Jazz Ferguson, WR, Northwestern State (COM) Clelin Ferrell, DE/3-4OLB, Clemson (LOC) Nick Fitzgerald, QB, Mississippi State (PRO) Cody Ford, OT/G, Oklahoma (PRI) Terry Godwin, WR, Georgia (EW) Ethan Greenidge, OT, Villanova (EW) Will Grier, QB, West Virginia (COM, PRO, LOC) Terrill Hanks, OLB, New Mexico State (PRO) Tim Harris, CB, Virginia (PRO) Montre Hartage, CB, Northwestern (EW) Tae Hayes, CB, Appalachian State (PRO) Phil Haynes, G, Wake Forest (LOC) Tytus Howard, OT, Alabama State (PRI) Mitch Hyatt, OT, Clemson (COM) Tyree Jackson, QB, Buffalo (COM) Lonnie Johnson Jr., CB, Kentucky (COM, PRI) Dre'Mont Jones, DT, Ohio State (PRI) Dexter Lawrence, DT/3-4DE/NT, Clemson (COM) Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss (COM, PRO, PRI, WOR) Erik McCoy, G/C, Texas A&M (SR, PRI) Kaleb McGary, OT, Washington (PRI) Christian Miller, 3-4OLB/OLB, Alabama (PRI) Jalin Moore, RB, Appalachian State (LOC) Byron Murphy, CB, Washington (PRI) Keisean Nixon, CB, South Carolina (LOC) Kyle Phillips, DE, Tennessee (PRO) Trey Pipkins, OT, Sioux Falls (EW) Taylor Rapp, S, Washington (PRI) Anthony Ratliff-Williams, WR, North Carolina (WOR) Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State (COM) Dru Samia, G, Oklahoma (PRO) Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina (COM, LOC) Miles Sanders, RB, Penn State (WOR) Khalen Saunders, DT, Western Illinois (PRI) Darnell Savage, S, Maryland (PRI) Jarrett Stidham, QB, Auburn (PRI) Montez Sweat, DE/3-4OLB/OLB, Mississippi State (PRO, PRI) Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida (PRI) Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia (SR) Clayton Thorson, QB, Northwestern (PRO, PRI) Brian Wallace, OT, Arkansas (EW) Christian Wilkins, DT/3-4DE/NT, Clemson (COM) First off, holy balls— THREE of our first four picks were all players that we met with in private. Not combine, not pro day, but private visits. That’s hugely telling in my opinion because it shows us that when Hurney is seriously considering a guy, he wants to meet with them in private. While Burns, Little, and Christian Miller were all private visits, Will Grier was not. I would argue that shows that we were more heavily invested in the other players, and took Grier perhaps more because we had a higher grade on him than a 3rd round grade and just flat out didn’t expect him to be there. So more about value to the organization than fit or preference possibly. So, if we know that Hurney likes to meet with players in private when he’s seriously considering them, and when we combine that with players who fit our draft position, we can see who else was a viable option with our first round pick last year: Montez sweat, Andre Dillard, Brian Burns, Cody Ford and maybe Greg Little—which would explain why we felt the need to trade up for him at the top of the 2nd. Also maybe Hollywood Brown but ehhh. Maybe he was a trade down scenario guy. Players like Maxx Crosby, Eric McCoy, and Byron Murphy could have easily been our favorite 2nd round targets had we stayed put in the second (if any of those guys weren’t 2nd rounders I’m sorry—I’m not fact checking that). My reason for pointing all of this out is that, the fact that we drafted such a high concentration of players that we met with privately tells me how good of a tool private workouts are to predict our real interest. Now the trick is using this pattern we’ve identified to try to predict our picks early in this years draft, or at least get a better idea of who is more likely. After all, that’s why you’re still here, right? 2020 draft visits: Francis Bernard, OLB, Utah (VIR, COM) Ross Blacklock, DT/3-4DE, TCU (VIR) Rodrigo Blankenship, K, Georgia (SR) Derrick Brown, DT/3-4DE/NT, Auburn (COM) Harrison Bryant, TE, Florida Atlantic (SR) Cameron Clark, OT, Charlotte (VIR) Kendall Coleman, DE, Syracuse (EW) Michael Danna, DE, Michigan (EW) Ben DiNucci, QB, James Madison (VIR) Kevin Dotson, G, La.-Lafayette (EW) Yasir Durant, OT, Missouri (COM) Austin Edwards, DE, Ferris State (EW) Ben Ellefson, TE, North Dakota State (EW) Darrynton Evans, RB, Appalachian State (VIR) Chris Finke, WR, Notre Dame (EW) Jon Greenard, DE/3-4OLB/OLB, Florida (VIR) Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama (COM) Jacob Knipp, QB, Northern Colorado (VIR) Benny LeMay, RB, Charlotte (VIR) Sewo Olonilua, RB, TCU (VIR) Diondre Overton, WR, Clemson (EW) Shaquille Quarterman, ILB, Miami (EW) Amik Robertson, CB, Louisiana Tech (COM, VIR) Alton Robinson, DE/OLB, Syracuse (SR) Isaiah Rodgers, CB, Massachusetts (VIR) Josiah Scott, CB, Michigan State (VIR) James Smith-Williams, DE, NC State (COM) Tommy Stevens, QB, Mississippi State (VIR) Justin Strnad, ILB, Wake Forest (COM) Cameron Sutton, TE, Fresno State (VIR) Levonta Taylor, CB, Florida State (VIR) Stanley Thomas-Oliver III, CB, Florida International (EW, VIR) Casey Toohill, OLB, Stanford (VIR) Josh Uche, 3-4OLB/OLB, Michigan (SR) Mykal Walker, OLB, Fresno State (EW) Kenny Willekes, DE/3-4OLB, Michigan State (VIR) Chris Williamson, CB, Minnesota (VIR) So...WOW. To be perfectly transparent with you guys, I didn’t even look at this list until this point in my post. I was not expecting this at all. Obviously it SUCKS that I just spent so much time harping on private visits, and here we don’t have any private visits. Here’s what I’ll say though, what does a private visit represent? It represents being able to spend extensive one on one time with a prospect to get to know them, to get an idea of if they’re a good fit culturally. Let’s, for the sake of having something to go off of here, assume that a virtual meeting is a rough equivalent to a private visit. What’s absolutely perplexing to me is that we haven’t bothered to meet or spend time with anyone virtually that we are being commonly mocked to take. We haven’t met with Simmons in any capacity. Haven’t met with any QB. Haven’t met with any top OT prospect. Haven’t met with Okudah. Haven’t met with even that CB out of Florida I’ve been seeing us get mocked recently. NONE of them. So there are a few possible explanations for this. The first could be that, maybe Rhule doesn’t care about meeting privately nearly as much as Rivera did. In defense of this idea, he has said that he feels his staff has an extensive network for getting the inside scoop on college prospects and he feels that we have a leg up there. So hear me say that my ultimate conclusion that I’m going to present is a good bit of conjecture, and it’s quite possible that the corona virus has thrown off reality and we draft someone that we didn’t meet with—even virtually. I really believe that this is unlikely though. For one, Rhule seems to be a big believer in having strong work ethic, and team-first guys that just love to compete. I understand that times are very strange, but how hard would it be to set up a damn Skype call with a player to at least confirm what a friend or college coach has told your staff about a player’s attitude or work ethic. Odd, right? The second reason I think this is unlikely is that, hey, I get that Rhule is probably being given a long leash here, but I think he would be the first person to tell you that he’s new to this, and is leaning on Hurney’s experience and expertise throughout this process. So why would Hurney just suddenly stop caring about meeting face to face with guys he’s staking his reputation on (at least virtually)? That doesn’t add up to me. Derrick Brown is the only player projected to go in the top 10 that we met with, and that was only at the combine. Is it possible that we were going to meet with him privately before the Coronavirus hit? Sure. But why not do a virtual meeting in its place? Why not meet virtually with Simmons? Or a top tackle? Out of curiosity, I went back and compared our draft visits against the Cardinals who sit one pick below us. They haven’t done many virtual meetings with players expected to go in the top 10, but they met with lots of the top tackles at the combine. We met with none. We also scheduled virtual meetings with none. So, I know this post has been pretty all over the place, but I tried to come into this analysis with an open mind; I didn’t want to go into this trying to prove we were going to draft any one person, or support my own draft hopes. After seeing all the visits, I have ended up concluding is this: It is obviously possible that we draft someone at 7 that we didn’t meet with, and it’s possible that we end up drafting Derrick Brown, as he’s the lone player projected top 10 that we’ve spent time with. But ultimately, what I believe this data shows us, is that the most likely player to be drafted by the panthers at #7 is actually.... No one. I might be wildly off base. After all, this is a pretty annoying time to be using this kind of data to make this kind of prediction, but last year I believed and hoped we would take Burns. The year before I believed and hoped we would take DJ. This year what I hope we do and what I believe we do don’t align. I WANT us to take Simmons, like the majority here. But everything I think I know about Hurney and how we do things tells me that if we were seriously considering Simmons that we would have met with him. Same goes for a tackle (quick side bar: I also think that Hurney choosing to meet with Little FOUR times last year and trading up for him tells me that he believes we’re set at OT between Little and Moton going forward. And you know what? Im going to give that time to unfold. I’ll trust him on it for now. So, drafting a tackle at 7 is, I believe, the absolute LEAST likely thing we could see happen on Thursday). In my mind, the most likely explanation for this perplexing data is that the Panthers made up their mind a long time ago to trade down out of the 7 spot, (perhaps significantly) to both acquire tremendous depth in this class (to get a quick influx, in terms of volume, of “Rhule’s guys”) and possibly to even just punt on this years draft to an extent because of all of this weirdness. *** I am going to be bold and put my flag in the ground that I believe the Panthers will trade down significantly in the first round in exchange for depth and a first round pick in next year’s draft.*** I hope at least a few people enjoyed my ramblings. It would be shocking even to me if I ended up being right about all of this, so go easy on me in the comments lol. I’m just a bored dude in quarantine like you guys! If anyone is privy to some information that I am not aware of in terms of these virtual visits, or anything else I’m happy to edit and update the post. I don’t think I’m above being wrong!
Crowning College Football's 2019 King of Chaos (P5 Only)
I as a college football fan am inspired by the lovely chaos of the game. Every week there's bound to be unexpected outcomes and amazing head-scratching performances by teams. This is an attempt to crown the KING of chaos among all power five teams for 2019. We start with our criteria, three categories were assessed. XXX Chaos Score (How Wrong was the Spread) This is simply looking at, on average, how many points off was the spread from the final result? Logically we can look at the spread for a game as what's "expected" to happen to surely the NCAA king of chaos would constantly be making the pre-game spread look stupid by overperforming or underperforming. This is the most important category. Top Five Most Predictable Teams
Team
Spread was Within Five Pts
Spread was Within Ten Pts
Average Chaos Score
5. Oklahoma State
8
9
7.5
4. Florida
6
8
7.5
3. Texas
7
8
7.0
2. Alabama
4
9
6.9
1. Iowa
6
9
6.4
Top Ten Most Unpredictable Teams
Team
Top Five Weirdest Games
Biggest Whiff by Spread
10. Illinois
17--21--25--27.5--32
(+31) vs Wisc (Wins 24-23)
9. Kansas State
17.5--18--23--28--31.5
(+24.5) vs OK (Wins 48-41)
8. Syracuse
14.5--15.5--34--41.5--53.5
(+10.5) vs Duke (Wins 49-6)
7. Kansas
19--22--23--41--44
(+20) vs BC (Wins 48-24)
6. Duke
19.5--23.5--30.5--37.5--53.5
(-10.5) vs SYR (Loses 49-6)
5. Miami
21--22--25--25.5--26.5
(-20.5) vs FIU (Loses 30-24)
4. Ohio State
22--24--24--27.5--32.5
(-38.5) vs Miami(OH) (Wins 76-5)
3. Wisconsin
18--27--30--32--39
(-10) vs USF (Wins 39-0)
2. Virginia Tech
21--21--24--37.5--38.5
(-6.5) vs GT (Wins 45-0)
1. Maryland
29.5--41.5--42--48--52.5
(+6.5) vs Penn St (Loses 56-0)
As you can clearly see this shows us the teams that spread could almost never figure out. This metric alone will not give us a college football chaos king by itself because we can all agree that the only thing "chaotic" about Ohio State and Maryland is that they would win and lose by huge margins. A true chaos king also scores highly in the next two factors I considered. XXX How Often was the Spread Right? A true king of chaos in the NCAA finds a way to lose when they are the favorite and win despite being the underdog as regularly as possible. Team that can master this craft of confusing the crap out of their fanbase truly bless us. Top Fifteen Teams Without Drama
TEAM
Record As Favorite
Record As Underdog
Lone Surprise
15. Texas
7--1
0--4
(-1) vs TCU (Loses 37-27)
14. Minnesota
9--0
1--2
(+6.5) vs PSU (Wins 31-26)
13. Indiana
7--0
1--4
(+2.5) vs NEB (Wins 27-24)
12. Penn State
10--1
0--1
(-6.5) vsMINN (Loses 31-26)
11. Texas A&M
7--1
0--4
(-4.5) vs AUB (Loses 28-20)
10. Florida
9--0
1--2
(+3) vs AUB (Wins 24-13)
9. Rutgers
1--0
1--10
(+7.5) vs Liberty (W 44-34)
8. Oklahoma
12--1
0--0
(-24.5) vs KSU (Loses 48-41)
7. Georgia
11--1
0--1
(-20.5) vs SC (Loses 20-17)
6. Wisconsin
10--1
0--2
(-31) vs ILL (Loses 24-23)
5. LSU
12--0
1--0
(+6) vs ALA (Wins 46-41)
4. Iowa
9--0
0--3
N/A
3. Michigan
9--0
0--3
N/A
2. Clemson
13--0
0--0
N/A
1. Ohio State
13--0
0--0
N/A
The ever consistent Big 10 has 8 of the top 15 and 3 of the 4 teams with no surprises all season. Now we get to the fun part with the teams that the spread was a glorified coin toss. Top Ten Teams Spread Had No Chance Against
TEAM
Record as Favorite
Record as Underdog
Biggest Surprise
10. Illinois
3--2
3--4
(+31) vs WISC (Wins 24-23)
9. Colorado
1--2
4--5
(+14.5) vs UW (Wins 20-14)
8. Tennessee
3--2
4--3
(-24.5) vs GSU (Loses 38-30)
7. UCLA
1--3
3--5
(+19) vs WSU (Wins 67-63)
6. Boston College
2--2
4--4
(-20) vs KU (Loses 48-24)
5. Kansas State
3--1
5--3
(+31.5) vs OK (Wins 48-41)
4. Virginia Tech
5--3
3--1
(-2.5) vs Duke (Loses 45-10)
3. Arizona State
3--3
4--2
(+16) vs MSU (Wins 10-7)
2. California
2--2
5--3
(+8.5) vs WSU (Wins 33-20)
1. Miami
4--5
2--1
(-20.5) vs FIU (Loses 30-24)
So now we see the teams that could not decide whether they were bad or good but there's one more recipe to chaos that we are missing. The final category incorporates one of the most obvious elements of CFB chaos. XXX Point Difference (How Close Were the Games Usually?) We all know that the most thrilling upsets of the season (think Oklahoma and Wisconsin) and the most incredible near upsets that we saw (Clemson) were all games decided in the final seconds. A true king of chaos not only surprises us by oveunder performing, but they also have a knack for playing close games against every opponent. True chaos teams literally don't care who's on the other sideline, they're going to battle to a close win or tough loss either way. In this category I only cared about close games, so I took the difference between the score and squared it. I capped it at 14 points to really reward teams that kept games inside two possessions. So losing 21-7 and 62-7 meant the same thing. Top Three Most Boring Seasons
Team
Average Win
Average Loss
One Possession Games
3. Clemson
47--11
X
1
2. Rutgers
46--28
38--7
0
1. Ohio State
49--13
X
0
Top Ten Most Cardiac Arrests From Fans
Team
Average Win
Average Loss
One Possession Games
10. Texas
42--26
33--25
6
9. California
26--18
28--12
6
8. Colorado
31--24
37--18
7
7. TCU
39--18
32--24
7
6. Iowa
28--12
17--12
7
5. Iowa State
42--22
29--25
6
4. Miami
32--12
30--24
8
3. Arizona State
25--16
33--25
7
2. Pittsburgh
27--21
23--11
8
1. North Carolina
35--17
32--28
9
Three of the top four are from the ACC where chaos reigns supreme. Three of the top ten are also from the famous Pac-12 with its legendary Pac-12 After Dark. Also the state of Iowa just loves nail-biters this year. North Carolina was the only P5 school with 9 out of its 12 games being one possession final scores. Now we compile our three factors to create an official top ten chaos teams in the NCAA P5. You can play around and weight these factors differently but I ultimately stuck with the first category as being most important. How far "off" the final score was from what was expected to happen is still the most important thing, so it was weighted at 50% with the other two categories at 25%. I'm incredibly pleased with the final top ten list and I'd love to share it with you. If you want a spoiler for number one then you might notice just one school made a top ten appearance on all THREE categories. XXX NUMBER TEN: TCU
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-55) vs Arkansas Pine-Bluff
39--7 (W)
9
(-3) vs Purdue
34--13 (W)
12
(-7.5) vs SMU
38--41 (L)
3
(-15) vs Kansas
51--14 (W)
10
(+5) vs Iowa State
24--49 (L)
11
(-3.5) vs Kansas State
17--24 (L)
4
(+1) vs Texas
37--27 (W)
8
(+2) vs Oklahoma State
27--34 (L)
7
(+2.5) vs Baylor
23--29 (L)
6
(-3.5) vs Texas Tech
33--31 (W)
5
(+18) vs Oklahoma
24--28 (L)
2
(-13.5) vs West Virginia
17--20 (L)
1
The fact that TCU's LEAST shocking result was blowing out Purdue as a 3 point favorite show a lot. One TCU was able to destroy Kansas, knock off Texas, and nearly upset Oklahoma. Meanwhile the same TCU team struggled against SMU, sucked against Iowa State, and then choked against West Virginia with bowl eligibility on the line. Here we have a 5 and 7 team that managed to almost defeat Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State...Incredible. XXX NUMBER NINE: CALIFORNIA
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-17) vs UC Davis
27--13 (W)
12
(+13) vs Washington
20--19 (W)
1
(-14) vs North Texas
23--17 (W)
5
(+2.5) vs Ole Miss
28--20 (W)
6
(-4) vs Arizona State
17--24 (L)
3
(+21.5) vs Oregon
7--17 (L)
8
(-11) vs Oregon State
17--21 (L)
2
(+21) vs Utah
0--35 (L)
11
(+8.5) vs Washington State
33--20 (W)
7
(+4) vs USC
17--41 (L)
10
(+2.5) vs Stanford
24--20 (W)
4
(+1) vs UCLA
28--18 (W)
9
Outside of an easy win over UC Davis and a clear loss to Utah, everything else on this schedule is a wild ride. There was one California team that pulled upsets over Washington and Washington State, but there was also a Cal team that was crushed by USC and stunned by Oregon State. XXX NUMBER EIGHT: IOWA STATE
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-23) vs Northern Iowa
29--26 (W)
1
(+1.5) vs Iowa
17--18 (L)
9
(-18) vs Louisiana Monroe
72--20 (W)
4
(-2.5) vs Baylor
21--23 (L)
6
(-5) vs TCU
49--24 (W)
10
(-9.5) vs West Virginia
38--14 (W)
12
(-7.5) vs Texas Tech
34--24 (W)
11
(-11) vs Oklahoma State
27--34 (L)
3
(+14.5) vs Oklahoma
41--42 (L)
2
(-7) vs Texas
23--21 (W)
5
(-25) vs Kansas
41--31 (W)
7
(-5) vs Kansas State
17--27 (L)
7
Iowa State fans were already confused from week one with a near embarrassment to Northern Iowa. The next week ISU somehow turned it around but still lost by one to Iowa. In back-to-back games this ISU team lost as big favorite to Oklahoma State and then nearly upset Oklahoma as big underdogs. Every week was a battle for this team with the 5th closest games in the P5. XXX NUMBER SEVEN: NEBRASKA
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-35.5) vs South Alabama
35--21 (W)
10
(-4) vs Colorado
31--34 (L)
4
(-14) vs North Illinois
44--8 (W)
9
(-13) vs Illinois
42--38 (W)
2
(+17) vs Ohio State
7--48 (L)
8
(-7.5) vs Northwestern
13--10 (W)
5
(+7.5) vs Minnesota
7--34 (L)
11
(-2.5) vs Indiana
31--38 (L)
6
(-4) vs Purdue
27--31 (L)
3
(+14.5) vs Wisconsin
21--37 (L)
12
(-5) vs Maryland
54--7 (W)
1
(+4.5) vs Iowa
24--27 (L)
7
While we all remember the helpless Nebraska team that lost to Colorado, nearly lost to Illinois, and lost to Purdue, this Cornhuskers squad had a knack for finding close games and ended the season by crushing Maryland and nearly shocking Iowa. This is the third Big12 entrant. XXX NUMBER SIX: BOSTON COLLEGE
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(+4.5) vs Virginia Tech
35--28 (W)
4
(-33.5) vs Richmond
45--13 (W)
12
(-20) vs Kansas
24--48 (L)
1
(-8) vs Rutgers
30--16 (W)
11
(+5) vs Wake Forest
24--27 (L)
7
(+4) vs Louisville
39--41 (L)
6
(+3.5) vs NC State
45--24 (W)
8
(+35) vs Clemson
7--59 (L)
9
(+3) vs Syracuse
58--27 (W)
3
(-2.5) vs Florida State
31--38 (L)
5
(+20.5) vs Notre Dame
7--40 (L)
10
(+8.5) vs Pittsburgh
26--19 (W)
2
It was an incredibly frustrating season for Boston College but they squeezed out six wins to still be bowl eligible. There was one BC squad that was able to win as an underdog against Va Tech, NC State, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh. Meanwhile the same team shockingly lost by 24(!) to Kansas, and lost three nail-biters to Wake Forest, Louisville, and FSU. XXX NUMBER FIVE: KANSAS
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-12) vs Indiana State
24--17 (W)
7
(-7) vs Coastal Carolina
7--12 (L)
4
(+20) vs Boston College
48--24 (W)
2
(+4.5) vs West Virginia
24--29 (L)
8
(+15) vs TCU
14--51 (L)
10
(+32.5) vs Oklahoma
20--45 (L)
11
(+21) vs Texas
48--50 (L)
1
(+6.5) vs Texas Tech
37--34 (W)
5
(+5) vs Kansas State
10--38 (L)
9
(+17.5) vs Oklahoma State
13--31 (L)
12
(+25) vs Iowa State
31--41 (L)
6
(+14) vs Baylor
6--61(L)
3
Here at number five with Kansas things start getting crazy. This is the third Big12 entry on this list. Kansas had a rough season and they had multiple weak showings this season. Almost losing to Indiana State, actually losing to Coastal Carolina, and being dominated by TCU, Kansas State, and Baylor were all low points. Yet what made Kansas so chaotic was somehow that same team crushed Boston College, nearly stunned Texas, battled against Iowa State, and then scored their only conference win over Texas Tech. XXX NUMBER FOUR: ILLINOIS
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-18) vs Akron
42--3 (W)
9
(-21.5) vs UConn
31--23 (W)
5
(-7) vs Eastern Michigan
31--34 (L)
3
(+13) vs Nebraska
38--42 (L)
4
(+14) vs Minnesota
17--40 (L)
10
(+24.5) vs Michigan
25--42 (L)
12
(+31) vs Wisconsin
24--23 (W)
1
(+9.5) vs Purdue
24--6 (W)
6
(-19) vs Rutgers
38--10 (W)
10
(+14) vs Michigan State
37--34 (W)
2
(+15.5) vs Iowa
10--19 (L)
8
(-6) vs Northwestern
10--29 (L)
7
Illinois had such a season turnaround. This is the second Big10 team so far and they started the season with a weak performance to UConn and upset loss to EMU. A four game losing streak setup a lost season for the Fighting Illini until BOOM out of nowhere one of the biggest upsets of the year over Wisconsin. They backed it up with another monster win over Purdue as an underdog. Then as a two touchdown underdog against Michigan State they rallied again. Then it swung back in the other direction with an unexpected dud against Northwestern to end the year. XXX NUMBER THREE: KANSAS STATE
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-20.5) vs Nicholls State
49--14 (W)
11
(-24) vs Bowling Green
52--0 (W)
8
(+6.5) vs Mississippi State
31--24 (W)
3
(+4) vs Oklahoma State
13--26 (L)
12
(+1) vs Baylor
12--31 (L)
10
(+3.5) vs TCU
24--17 (W)
5
(+24.5) vs Oklahoma
48--41 (W)
1
(-5) vs Kansas
38--10 (W)
9
(+7) vs Texas
24--27 (L)
6
(-13.5) vs West Virginia
20--24 (L)
2
(+2.5) vs Texas Tech
30--27 (W)
4
(+5) vs Iowa State
27--17 (W)
7
The fourth Big 12 school here also manufactured one of the biggest upsets of the year. There was a clear Top-25 Kansas State that destroyed Kansas, handled Mississippi State, took down TCU and Iowa State, and then stunned Oklahoma. There were also disappointments against Texas and especially West Virginia but this KSU squad just kept overperforming week after week. XXX NUMBER TWO: VIRGINIA TECH
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(-4.5) vs Boston College
28--35 (L)
7
(-29.5) vs Old Dominion
31--17 (W)
11
(-21.5) vs Furman
24--17 (W)
5
(-2.5) vs Duke
10--45 (L)
4
(+14) vs Miami
42--35 (W)
2
(-28) vs Rhode Island
34--17 (W)
12
(+3.5) vs North Carolina
43--41 (W)
6
(+17.5) vs Notre Dame
20--21 (L)
1
(+2) vs Wake Forest
36--17 (W)
10
(-6.5) vs Georgia Tech
45--0 (W)
3
(-4) vs Pittsburgh
28--0 (W)
9
(-2.5) vs Virginia
30--39 (L)
8
Virginia Tech had an insane start to the season. First they lose to Boston College, then they struggled as big favorites over Old Dominion, then they nearly lose to Furman, and cap it off with an embarrassment against Duke. Then as big underdogs to Miami they scored a win. The season turned around with a late win over UNC, nearly shocking Notre Dame, DOMINATING Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh. Then right at the end a loss to Virginia. XXX NUMBER ONE: MIAMI
(Spread) vs Opponent
Final Score
Chaos Rank
(+7) vs Florida
20--24 (L)
8
(-4.5) vs North Carolina
25--28 (L)
6
(-41) vs Bethune-Cookman
63--0 (W)
10
(-30.5) vs Central Michigan
17--12 (W)
1
(-14) vs Virginia Tech
35--42 (L)
4
(-2.5) vs Virginia
17--9 (W)
9
(-18) vs Georgia Tech
21--28 (L)
3
(+6) vs Pittsburgh
16--12 (W)
5
(+2.5) vs Florida State
27--10 (W)
11
(-7) vs Louisville
52--27 (W)
12
(-20.5) vs FIU
24--30 (L)
2
(-9.5) vs Duke
17--27 (L)
7
Truly nobody was king in all three categories quite like Miami. This is a Miami team that made absolutely no sense. On one hand they almost beat Florida, BUT then they lost to NC, BUT then they smoked Bethune-Cookman, BUT then they barely escaped with a win against Central Michigan and lost as big favorites to Virginia Tech, BUT then they turned it around with a close win over Virginia ONLY to suck again against Georgia Tech BUT THEN another turnaround to upset Pittsburgh AND Florida State as underdogs. All of this culminates in taking a three game winning streak and somehow choking to FIU and Duke in back to back weeks. Insane season of ups and downs (but mostly downs) for Miami they are team Chaos. XXX Top Twenty Team Chaos Rankings
Team
Chaos Rank (64 Tms)
Spread Correct?
Close Game (64 Tms)
Final Score
20. Washington State
24
9 out of 12
27
63
19. Purdue
34
7 out of 12
16
63
18. Syracuse
8
9 out of 12
58
64
17. Colorado
39
6 out of 12
8
64
16. Missouri
17
8 out of 12
44
66
15. Pittsburgh
36
8 out of 12
2
66
14. Maryland
1
10 out of 12
50
67
13. Tennessee
23
6 out of 12
36
67
12. UCLA
18
6 out of 12
37
70
11. Duke
6
8 out of 12
52
71
10. TCU
26
8 out of 12
7
73
9. California
31
5 out of 12
9
73
8. Iowa State
22
9 out of 12
5
73
7. Nebraska
15
9 out of 12
15
75
6. Boston College
13
6 out of 12
35
76
5. Kansas
7
9 out of 12
23
78
4. Illinois
10
7 out of 12
20
82
3. Kansas State
9
6 out of 12
11
88
2. Virginia Tech
2
6 out of 12
25
88
1. Miami
5
5 out of 12
4
95
As I was putting this together I thought of some improvements to the model and some other things to research but I loved getting to share this and I hope you enjoyed it. If this gets enough love I'll go through and look at G5 teams as well as releasing my data that I collected.
This is a weekly thread to discuss football in the ACC. Discussion should be limited to football in this conference. You should also go check out ACC, the subreddit for ACC sports! Hey there, guys! It's your host of the ACC Discussion Thread, YellowSkarmory, back for post-week 2's post! What happened, what's going to happen?: Quick recap/preview: Week 2 happened, being kicked off with 2 Friday games inside the ACC! Virginia easily beat W&M and Wake beat Rice, but that's not the major point - not including ACC games, the ACC went 11-1. However, only 2 of those games were against P5 opponents, which they split, and against FBS teams they only went 6-1. The major game last week was Clemson-Texas A&M, which Clemson won by 14. This upcoming week, there's not all that much to look forward to; Clemson does travel to Syracuse though, along with another in-conference clash of FSU @ Virginia, and a technically OOC game between UNC and Wake Forest that is one of 2 of our midweek games, along with Kansas traveling to BC. Last week's games: OOC: William & Mary 17 @ 52 #25 Virginia Wake Forest 41 @ 21 Rice Ohio 10 @ 20 Pittsburgh #23 Syracuse 20 @ 63 Maryland Old Dominion 17 @ 31 Virginia Tech Western Carolina 0 @ 41 NC State South Florida 10 @ 14 Georgia Tech #11 Texas A&M 10 @ 24 #1 Clemson Richmond 13 @ 45 Boston College UL-Monroe 44 @ 45 Florida State (OT) NC A&T 13 @ 45 Duke Eastern Kentucky 0 @ 42 Louisville In-conference: Miami (FL) 25 @ 28 North Carolina BYE: Everybody played last week! This week's games: OOC: #25 North Carolina @ Wake Forest - Friday, September 13th (6:00 PM ET) - NOTE: This is technically an OOC game. Kansas @ Boston College - Friday, September 13th (7:00 PM ET) Pittsburgh @ #12 Penn State - Saturday, September 14th (12:00 PM ET) NC State @ West Virginia - Saturday, September 14th (12:00 PM ET) Furman @ Virginia Tech - Saturday, September 14th (12:00 PM ET) The Citadel @ Georgia Tech - Saturday, September 14th (12:30 PM ET) Louisville vs. Western Kentucky - Saturday, September 14th (4:00 PM ET) - In Nashville, TN. Bethune-Cookman @ Miami (FL) - Saturday, September 14th (4:00 PM ET) Duke @ Middle Tennessee - Saturday, September 14th (7:00 PM ET) In-conference: #1 Clemson @ Syracuse - Saturday, September 14th (7:30 PM ET) Florida State @ #24 Virginia - Saturday, September 14th (7:30 PM ET) BYE: Everybody plays this week! Points of Discussion:
Florida State barely escapes UL-Monroe in OT with another 2nd half struggle.
Clemson beats Texas A&M 24-10.
Maryland destroys Syracuse.
Virginia Tech does get revenge on Old Dominion.
UNC takes out Miami in a close game.
Clemson travels to Syracuse to try and beat them on the road as revenge for their 2017 loss.
Pitt travels to Penn State in a rivalry game.
UNC and Wake Forest play in a game that's technically an OOC game.
This is a weekly thread to discuss football in the ACC. Discussion should be limited to football in this conference. You should also go check out ACC, the subreddit for ACC sports! Hey there, guys! It's your host of the ACC Discussion Thread, YellowSkarmory, back for post-week 3's post! What happened, what's going to happen?: Quick recap/preview: Week 3 happened, with 2 friday games again! This time, Wake beat UNC in a close, technically OOC game, while Boston College somehow got killed by Kansas. Some other major game results include Clemson beating Syracuse by 35 on the road, and Virginia surviving FSU. Overall, the ACC (not including games between 2 ACC teams) went 4-4, 0-3 against other P5 teams, 2-0 against G5 teams and 2-1 against FCS teams (thanks Georgia Tech). Next week, we see no weekday games and not all that much interesting; there is 1 game between an ACC team and another P5 team, BC @ Rutgers (not counting in-conference games), and probably the biggest game will be UCF @ Pittsburgh. App State @ UNC has potential to be interesting as well. Louisville travels to FSU in the only in-conference game. Last week's games: OOC: #25 North Carolina 18 @ 24 Wake Forest - NOTE: This was technically an OOC game. Kansas 48 @ 24 Boston College Pittsburgh 10 @ 17 #12 Penn State NC State 27 @ 44 West Virginia Furman 17 @ 24 Virginia Tech The Citadel 27 @ 24 Georgia Tech (OT) Louisville 38 vs. 21 Western Kentucky - In Nashville, TN. Bethune-Cookman 0 @ 63 Miami (FL) Duke 41 @ 18 Middle Tennessee In-conference: #1 Clemson 41 @ 6 Syracuse Florida State 24 @ 31 #24 Virginia BYE: Everybody played last week! This week's games: OOC: Boston College @ Rutgers - Saturday, September 21st (12:00 PM ET) Western Michigan @ Syracuse - Saturday, September 21st (12:00 PM ET) Elon @ Wake Forest - Saturday, September 21st (12:00 PM ET) #12 UCF @ Pittsburgh - Saturday, September 21st (3:30 PM ET) Appalachian State @ North Carolina - Saturday, September 21st (3:30 PM ET) Central Michigan @ Miami (FL) - Saturday, September 21st (4:00 PM ET) Old Dominion @ #21 Virginia - Saturday, September 21st (7:00 PM ET) Ball State @ NC State - Saturday, September 21st (7:00 PM ET) Charlotte @ #1 Clemson - Saturday, September 21st (7:30 PM ET) In-conference: Louisville @ Florida State - Saturday, September 21st (3:30 PM ET) BYE: Duke (2-1) - Not much to say here; they got killed by Alabama and have handled NC A&T/MTSU solidly. Georgia Tech (1-2) - How did you lose to The Citadel? This should not have been a struggle, considering they beat an FBS team in South Florida. Virginia Tech (2-1) - Gonna have to manage to stop nearly losing to teams you shouldn't be losing to. Old Dominion was in the game until late in the 4th quarter, and Furman was up at the half and only lost by 7. Points of Discussion:
Wake Forest moves to 3-0 after a win over a ranked UNC.
Kansas blows out Boston College and West Virginia beats NC State by 3 scores.
Penn State beats Pitt in a low scoring game.
VT and Georgia Tech struggle against FCS opponents, with GT falling to Citadel in OT.
Clemson destroys Syracuse and Virginia survives FSU in the 2 in-conference showdowns this week.
Boston College travels to Rutgers.
UCF travels to Pitt and App State travels to UNC in 2 games with strong G5 teams in them.
Louisville travels to FSU in the only in-conference game.
No. 16 West Virginia (8-3) plays No. 20 Syracuse (9-3) in the Camping World Bowl on Dec. 28 at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. Syracuse tops West Virginia in Camping World Bowl, 34-18. Abdul Adams and Trishton Jackson made their Syracuse debuts memorable, combining to score three touchdowns and helping the 17th-ranked ... Our college football experts predict, pick and preview the Camping World Bowl between the West Virginia Mountaineers and Syracuse Orange with kickoff time, TV channel and spread. Syracuse Orange at West Virginia Mountaineers 12/28/18: College Football free preview, analysis, prediction, odds and pick against the spread. Syracuse play West Virginia at 5:15 p.m. Eastern Friday on ESPN. The game is being played at World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. Here’s how Unanimous A.I. has predicted NFL games this season. West Virginia vs. Syracuse, Camping World Bowl: Prediction, pick, line, odds, TV, live stream, watch online A bowl game with an old Big East flair should feature plenty of offense even without ... The Syracuse Orange (9-4 overall, 3-3 ACC) visit the Virginia Cavaliers (10-2, 6-0) Monday for a 7 p.m. ET tip. Below, we analyze the Syracuse-Virginia college basketball odds and lines, with picks and predictions.. The Cavaliers were No. 12 in last week’s Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports (the new poll will be released Monday). Following a non-conference trip to New Orleans and a bye week, the Syracuse Orange football team returns to Big East play Friday night, hosting the No. 11 West Virginia Mountaineers at the Carrier ... Syracuse Orange at West Virginia Mountaineers 12/28/18: College Football free preview, analysis, prediction, odds and pick against the spread.